The BREXIT Model

It seems on a daily basis now that we continue to get a drip..drip analysis of BREXIT’s effects on the economy, some good but mostly quite negative – and the worse part is that no one can really tell fact from fiction. This while our “lovely” politicians continue playing their usual politics-of-the-day games, making choices of twists/turns to the Referendum mandate (Canada++/Norway-+/X^?) so as to squeeze in policies rather than focusing the 2 fundamental issues that we face;

1. BREXIT Impact Assessment/Vision
2. Proper Investigation into Russian meddling into the Referendum

So what this means in laymen terms is that we’re essentially putting the cart before the horse; politicians making policies on-the-go purely based on ideological narratives / objectives divorce from realities or to be more accurate only conveniently pointing to the realities (headlines) that match their narratives, while we as tax payers will ultimately pick up the bill for choices being made and while our country continues to be impacted at every level for these continued delays/divisions and most of all incompetence. At this stage and in this political ecosystem no single party can take the moral high ground in speaking for Britain – because unfortunately due to their flawed politics they have failed to unite the country under 1 single vision moving forward driven by a clear/inclusive process. In other words they have all failed us miserably; remember we’re NOT talking about national politics/visions that change at election time, this is real hardball politics that affects this country for generations to come.

I believe it’s now time for us to respectfully tell our “lovely” politicians to follow this simplistic approach;

1. Shut the Hell Up
2. Suspend BREXIT Negotiations
3. Initiate a Full / Independent / Objective BREXIT Impact Assessment paper while putting all resources to complete this at the shortest possible time (1-2 months) at the latest while providing pragmatic vision In/OUT of the EU.
4. Initiate a full independent investigation into Russian meddling – Robert Mueller style – so as to protect the country from similar actions in future while ensuring accountability of politicians if cases of collusion are found.
5. Debate in parliament conclusions reached by the assessment
6. Call for a General election

Note**: It is absolutely foolish to get side tracked on policy details if your priorities have been diluted and the process is flawed – that’s a recipe for ultimate failure however good will is involved to get things right. The process above including BREXIT independent assessment also covers recommendations for 2 possible options (BREXIT/NO BREXIT) and the form advised for each of these options. Now we need to stick with process until such an assessment is completed/presented to parliament then we can select a preferred option and drill to policy details to make the relevant choices/adjustments.

In brief we need to STOP playing politics with the future of the nation at stake in both cases of BREXIT assessment/vision & foreign meddling in the referendum and this cannot be realistically achieved in the current political climate; it is therefore imperative that we minimise the extent to which partisan politics/ideological prejudices can contaminate our judgements on these matters of long term strategic interest. However once the BREXIT dust settles we really need to turn our attention to fixing this broken political ecosystem system – politics needs to change in this Island and more importantly needs a deliberate/focused process of continued assessment/evolution.

Failing the above approach means 2 things; a) continued political uncertainty/economic volatility b) the real prospect of a bad deal at the end of the run because we started off by a flawed process and focused primarily on narratives/visions driven by pure ideology and divorced from reality/national interest. 

Finally to these proponents of a vote on the final deal let me just say this is lazy politics . Why? Well because this essentially translates to continued uncertainty at every level while political ideologues driving the PM and her government continue to ram through laws that sever ties with the EU that make it difficult to reverse the decision. As for proponents of a 2nd Referendum, though this was my first – now my second choice – my concern is that again we’re putting quite complex issues for a public vote rather than allowing our parliamentary democracy to function as it should. This compounded with the possibility that we may not yet have the proper safeguards in place to prevent further meddling into such an important debate/vote.

For me it less about the ultimate decision and more about 2 basic things;

• Uniting the country under a process that’s fair/transparent to all sides of the debate
• Demonstrating our ability as a nation to develop effective processes that follow our democratic principles/values even when confronted with difficult political choices so that we can begin to have confidence in the system-irrespective political prejudices.

Hope this helps!

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