My take is slightly different; if NATO allies are NOT rushing to help the U.S. on any basis other than an illegal/unprovoked war against a sovereign state, at least in the main – particularly one that was actively engaged in negotiations with the U.S (but even irrespective of this detail), then far from it being a calculation by the allies, this scenario would in reality be a miscalculation by them, in my opinion. I guess getting the narrative straight is crucial to establish the right context, otherwise the context would be distorted and you’re likely to fall repeatedly into the same kinda mess.