BREXIT: Unraveling the Myths (the Glory Days Ahead)

Introduction

The idea behind these posts is really to set the record straight BREXIT options while trying to engage in a constructive manner about the way forward by analysing accurate information rather than divisive disinformation out there. I would invite contributions of posts/articles from all sides of the political divide to try and pin down what is reality as opposed to fiction. This is NOT however a space for ideologues from any side to bounce insults/accusations and misinformation. We leave that to our political “geniuses” on all sides; truly sad to see how our politicians contribute to this divisiveness rather than uniting the country in this critical debate about our future as a nation. I also have to be honest about where I stand in this debate as a “Remainer” NOT for ideology (or by design) necessarily or the love for the EU as it stands without significant reforms to this enormous bureaucracy but because I genuinely believe this is the right choice for the future of this country. I remain open minded about the final decision, but what I am NOT flexible about is the importance of an inclusive process that puts us on the right path. The referendum in my view was based on a chunk of lies/false promises and more importantly no clear vision on the way forward from any side – these are the pitfalls of Referendums as they are currently organised and please check the post link at this end of the page. I am also utterly against the silly campaigns of “Exit BREXIT/Kill BREXIT”. These again call for the suppression of views without proper debate – so we go from alt-right to alt-left. What I propose is meeting at the centre of this debate by calling for a 2nd referendum that is fact-based avoiding the pitfalls of the last one while at the same time all parties committing to an inclusive process so we can go into negotiations (in or out) in an unified manner. This I believe is the right approach forward.

Myth – The Glory Days Ahead

‘Europe is the past!’ Jacob Rees-Mogg says UK to enter glory days with Boris’ Brexit plan

OK, so we’re about to enter the “Glorious Space Ship” commandeered by 2nd Officer Jacob Rees-Mogg and Captain Boris Johnson that will steer us towards the wonder island that is Britain post BREXIT. Well, I don’t know about you but I am excited!

But before we start off this amazing journey lets just make sure we know the route we’re taking and that there is actually a place to land – strictly for insurance purposes of course. So a few points to make here before we finally decide to put our lives into their caring hands of these “commodores”;

a) The idea that we will be much well off economically post BREXIT is a fiction if you consider that they are willing to ditch the EU as our biggest/closest trading partner.

b) When deciding to come out of the EU it helps to go back in history and understand why we got into the EU in the first place despite 2 failed attempts in 1963 (after long negotiations) and 1967. Britain joined because joining the European project was perceived to be a way to stop its relative economic decline. In 1950, UK’s per capita GDP was almost a third larger than the EU6 average; in 1973, it was about 10% below and it has been comparatively stable ever since.

campos fig1 2 feb

c) When we consider FTA’s (Free Trade Agreements) as an alternative, well as it so happens we’ve been down that route before. In 1960 the EFTA ( European Free Trade Area) was established thanks to a British Conservative government that was unwilling to participate in the EC.  However it was clear that the EFTA’s performance from the outset was inferior to that of the EC which is why a year latter Britain applied for membership in the EC. More importantly there will inevitably be resistance within the EU of making a success of such arrangements becomes it will undermine the EU itself as a trading block.

d) When we now hear about the potential increase of trade with the Common Wealth & Asia let’s remember a few things;

  • It takes years to build a strong/viable alternate market, something we’ve helped establish with the EU. So the assumption that we can achieve such a strong/sophisticated relationship as we currently have wth the EU is a myth – remember it’s about volume, regulations and standards among others. Of course politicians know this hence the keenness of the BREXITEERS within the government to now opt for a transitional period – but that won’t work either – it’s just kicking the can down the road to delay the inevitable – with no accountability of who picks the scraps when things turn south.
  • When negotiating trade/investment deals with non-EU countries we are now in a strong position being a member of a major trade block.  Take that away and we have much less leverage in these negotiations as the market we offer them is much smaller and we no longer provide them access (or potential access) to this vast trade market. For non-EU states to encourage to us take that route is quite obvious – they will still have the ability to trade with the EU directly and now have much more leverage in access the British market on their terms with migration being a key factor as demonstrated here. Still not sure, how about this from today’s news; U.K. PM Theresa May, desperate for post-Brexit deals, plays a weak hand

Finally I would like share the link below which is a post that includes a very very interesting lecture that helps dispel myths about globalisation, referendums and the rise of nationalism/populism in an attempt to put things in perspective away from the divisive politics that has mired our political landscape for years.

Dispelling the Myths about Globalisation and Referendums